مجلة الاطروحة العلمية المحكمة الاطروحه للنشر العلمي
اثر الاستيرادات الزراعية على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة 1990 – 2019
م.م. أحمد عبد العزيز العجراوي
كلية الزراعة والغابات / جامعة الموصل
Abstract:
The research aims to determine the economic impact of agricultural imports and some other variables on economic growth, as a set of economic variables were adopted to be a sample for our study, in which time series data were relied upon in estimating the impact of each of (values of agricultural imports x1, foreign exchange rate x2, and the rate of foreign exchange x2). Inflation X3, and population X4) in the dependent variable represented by (economic growth) in Iraq Y, and the standard model was estimated through the stability test of the data series and for all variables. To the balanced relationship between imports and economic growth in the short and long term, and it was found through the results of the research that there is a long-term integrative relationship between economic growth and the import components included in the standard model, as well as the significant impact of imports of agricultural commodities on economic growth, and the research relied on its methodology on Two methods: The first method included the theoretical framework for the concept of economic growth, agricultural imports, theories and research that studied the subject. P and previous studies, as for the second method, it included the practical framework of the standard model and the analysis and measurement of the relationship between the economic variables in the study. The results confirmed that Iraq is one of the countries that went through difficult economic conditions and a state of political instability and increased turmoil, wars and economic blockade, which caused a slowdown in economic growth rates, and therefore the The results of the standard analysis showed the fluctuation in the growth rates of imports between rise and fall, and it was found from the study of the results of the unit root test that most of them are stable after taking the first difference for them. The calculated F value according to the standard test is greater than all the upper and lower values, which means that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship. The results of the study also showed that the effect of agricultural imports is significant and positive on economic growth, but its value indicates that the market is not satisfied with the total agricultural products, and this was consistent with the economic theory and consistent with the objectives of the research. The study recommended directing imports with trade policies to serve economic growth by reducing excessive imports of consumer goods, which would promote the growth of agricultural products in Iraqi markets, and be more positive in influencing economic growth, facilitating and enhancing imports of raw materials and machinery; To serve the agricultural productive capacities, with the need to pay attention to the agricultural sector and work to develop its production in quantity and quality in line with the needs of the Iraqi economy, and to search for other sources to contribute to increasing the national income and thus raising the rate of economic growth.
Key words: economic growth, agricultural imports, inflation, population