مجلة الاطروحة العلمية المحكمة الاطروحه للنشر العلمي
انعكاس مخاطر التمويل من الاقتراض العام على صافي الموازنة العامة الجزائر انموذجاً للمدة (2004-2020)
الباحث . حنان أَحمد الخاتوني
أ.د. هاشم محمد عبد الله العركوب
جامعة الموصل / كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد / قسم الاقتصاد
Abstract
The tagged study (the risks of financing the budget deficit from public borrowing for selected countries with reference to Iraq for the period 1995-2020) dealt with its theoretical aspect; Since the public loan is one of the sources of public revenues for countries, and it is among the credit revenues, the state may need to cover its increasing expenses, after it has exhausted all its regular revenues, so it resorts to assuming the amounts it needs to supplement its regular revenues obtained from fees and taxes. The importance of the study is due to Addressing a dangerous and necessary problem that developing countries, including Iraq, are facing, in order to benefit from external and internal borrowing as a primary source of transferring economic activities in the country and its sectors, and the extent to which they contribute to supporting the productive sectors, and to the extent to which borrowing is effective in supporting economic development and what is the role of loans in various fields The economic, social and political life, and what are the reasons that prompt the state to resort to assumptions. The importance of the study is clear that internal and external public loans have a distinctive role in achieving the state’s financial balance, as well as leading to achieving financial balance after the financial deficit that the state was suffering from. This is in order to cover extraordinary public expenditures, and public loans do not represent a final resource for the treasury. Rather, the state must return it, along with paying the annual interest incurred on the loan.
Accordingly, from the above, the study aims to clarify the role of public loans in facing the budget deficit in selected Arab countries with reference to Iraq, as well as to identify the effectiveness of these loans in improving the economic, social and political activities of the state, where the study relied on the (standard) approach using The data collection method (Panal Data), which deals with the description of the model variables used in the study, as well as a review of the methodology of the standard analysis of the study model used, reinforced by the most prominent tests used to detect the standard problems that will confront the model, as well as the measurement and analysis of the impact of the study variables on the general budget deficit of countries Selected Arab countries for the period (2004-2020), as the independent variables were (total public debt, current public spending, total tax revenues, and the corruption control index). (17) years for the period (2004-2020), and this period is sufficient to be approved in order to produce acceptable results for the standard work.From the foregoing, the study reached results, the most prominent of which was that public loans contribute greatly if directed to the desired goal in reviving and revitalizing the economies of countries that suffer from the problems of poverty, unemployment, lack of funding, and the existence of a joint integration between the study’s variables, all of which are at a level of morale less than 1% (that is, there is a long-term relationship between the study variables), and through the use of the Autoregressive Vector Model (VAR), and depending on the (SC) criterion, the optimal number of deceleration periods that rid the model of the autocorrelation problem of the residuals is (1).