مجلة الاطروحة العلمية المحكمة الاطروحه للنشر العلمي
دراسة اقتصادية للعوامل المؤثرة على انتاج واستهلاك محصول القمح وسبل تحقيق الامن الغذائي في العراق للمدة 1990 _2023
احمد ماجد حميد
م.د. هاشم عطاالله عبد
جامعة تكريت / كلية الزراعة / قسم الاقتصاد والارشاد الزراعي / الاقتصاد الزراعي
Abstract
It is a cheap study that looks at the key drivers behind wheat crop production and consumption to reach food security levels in Iraq for the years 1990 to 2023. The study focused on wheat as the prime crop and set out to do an economic ana͏lysis on two functions—production and consumption functions of the wheat crop, by estimating several factors that influenced it during 1990 to 2023. The study is premised on the problem of the low grain crop and specifically wheat crop production. The double logarithmic formula was used as a function of wheat crop production. The Perron Phillips test was used to test whether the time series was stable; results showed that some variables stabilized at the level and others at the first difference. Therefore, the ARDL model was applied. The bound test was used to test for joint integration between the study variables. The results of such a test indicate that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship (joint integration) between the local production of wheat crop and the independent variables. Results of the error correction test in both the long and short-term relationships between the parameters (cultivated area, consumed quantity, rainfall, chemical technology, mechanical technology) are positive and significant and support economic logic for the studied crop. The error correction parameter is also positive and significant meaning that short-term errors are corrected in the long run. The corrected coefficient of determination is 0.94 for the wheat crop. The significance of the function as a whole was verified by the calculated F test, in this case, 51.125 for the studied crop, respectively, and diagnostic tests were then run and established that the model checks out free of standard problems. Regarding the learning of the consumption function of the studied wheat crop, the results of the short-run and long-run relationship error correction test of the parameters (local production, per capita share of national income, border price, local price, population) showed that the results showed that the variables came with a positive and significant sign in the short term and long term, and all of them are in line with the economic logic of the crop under study. Concerning the error correction parameter, it came with a negative sign and was significant, which means that short-run errors are correctable in the long run (1.310= 1/0.763= ECM) thereby implying that the time taken to return to the long-term equilibrium is one year and three months. Regarding the coefficient of determination, it amounted to 0.88 for the share of variations influencing the function of wheat crop consumption, where the significance of the function was proved. An F-test was computed at 22.303 for the crop under consideration and diagnostic tests were carried out on the model to find it free from normal errors